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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model