Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 7

(13:59) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to NYG 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 15 for 2 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model