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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYG
38.6%
OAK
61.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: OAK by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYG

Jonathan Casillas LB Out Neck
Justin Pugh G Doubtful Back
Eli Apple CB Questionable Hip
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Elbow

OAK

Amari Cooper WR Out Concussion
David Amerson CB Questionable Foot
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Ankle
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
OAK 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:35 TD LV (12:35) 24-M.Lynch right guard for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 00:09 TD NYG (:09) 26-O.Darkwa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 03:41 FG LV (3:41) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. NYG 7 – OAK 10
  • Q4 10:23 TD LV (10:23) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-21-L.Collins was injured during the play. NYG 7 – OAK 16
  • Q4 05:22 TD NYG (5:22) (Shotgun) 3-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NYG 13 – OAK 17
  • Q4 03:31 TD LV (3:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-J.Holton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – OAK 23
  • Q4 01:43 FG NYG (1:43) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 17 – OAK 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:10) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to LV 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard to LV 40 for 19 yards (55-R.Armstrong). FUMBLES (55-R.Armstrong), recovered by LV-39-K.McGill at LV 40. 39-K.McGill to LV 40 for no gain (Team).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:38) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to LV 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 39 for 2 yards (83-K.Raymond).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 17%

    (8:27) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:58) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to LV 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 25. 30-J.Richard to LV 27 for 2 yards (33-A.Adams, 83-K.Raymond).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:32) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to NYG 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 26 for 8 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 34%

    (11:52) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch up the middle to NYG 46 for -1 yards (54-O.Vernon).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 73%

    (5:16) 24-M.Lynch left guard to NYG 20 for 10 yards (21-L.Collins).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (3:41) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:08) 9-B.Wing punts 69 yards to LV 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-83-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (:49) (Punt formation) 7-M.King up the middle to LV 9 for -11 yards (43-S.Smith).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:59) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to NYG 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 15 for 2 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 55%

    (6:07) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to NYG 4, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-19-I.Whitney.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:17) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to LV 39, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:01) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, recovered by LV-39-K.McGill at LV 21. 39-K.McGill to LV 21 for no gain (22-W.Gallman).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

    (1:43) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.