Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model