Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, recovered by LV-39-K.McGill at LV 21. 39-K.McGill to LV 21 for no gain (22-W.Gallman).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model