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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP