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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP