4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Monday 2017-12-04 · 20:30 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PIT
51.1%
CIN
48.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.011 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.113 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
CIN 21
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PIT

Joe Haden CB Out Fibula
Vance McDonald TE Out Ankle
Michael Mitchell S Doubtful Ankle
Antonio Brown WR Questionable Toe

CIN

Vincent Rey LB Out Hamstring
Nick Vigil LB Out Ankle
Shawn Williams S Out Hamstring
Michael Johnson DE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 FG CIN (10:53) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 00:45 TD CIN (:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 00:35 TD CIN (:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CIN 16
  • Q2 00:05 FG PIT (:05) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – CIN 17
  • Q3 09:09 TD PIT (9:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 26-L.Bell for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CIN 17
  • Q3 03:38 FG CIN (3:38) 4-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 10 – CIN 20
  • Q4 10:11 FG PIT (10:11) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – CIN 20
  • Q4 03:55 TD PIT (3:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-43-G.Iloka, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 19 – CIN 20
  • Q4 00:04 FG PIT (:04) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 23 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (10:53) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 43%

    (7:22) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to CIN 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:41) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 21 for 11 yards (20-R.Golden). PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10. Penalty on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:34) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:51) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 22, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (14:08) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 17.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 86%

    (3:38) 4-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:21) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 4, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 13 for 9 yards (29-B.Allen; 55-A.Moats).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:47) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 26 for 13 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at PIT 13. {E.Rogers credited with 0 return yards due to the penalty}

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:17) 26-L.Bell right tackle to PIT 45 for 9 yards (26-J.Shaw). CIN-55-V.Burfict was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (10:11) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:12) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 32 for 9 yards (87-C.Uzomah). PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 30. {E.Rogers credited with 7 return yards due to the penalty}

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:48) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (:04) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.