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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model