Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 32 for 9 yards (87-C.Uzomah). PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 30. {E.Rogers credited with 7 return yards due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model