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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to CIN 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model