Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 21 for 11 yards (20-R.Golden). PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10. Penalty on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model