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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 7 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to SF 17, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on SF-26-G.Mabin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at SF 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP