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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SF
56.0%
CHI
44.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.180 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.512 EPA/dropback (SF starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of C.J. Beathard)
  • CHI offense: -0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Trenton Brown T Questionable Shoulder
Adrian Colbert S Questionable Thumb
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Isaiah Irving LB Out Knee
Adrian Amos S Doubtful Hamstring
Deon Bush S Questionable Ankle
DeAndre Houston-Carson S Questionable Ankle
Cre'von LeBlanc CB Questionable Illness
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee
Josh Sitton G Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 15
–
CHI 14

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:16 FG SF (8:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – CHI 0
  • Q1 00:16 TD CHI (:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 17-D.Inman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – CHI 6
  • Q2 12:01 FG SF (12:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 06:12 TD CHI (6:12) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 29-T.Cohen for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 13
  • Q2 00:29 FG SF (:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – CHI 14
  • Q3 02:00 FG SF (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 12 – CHI 14
  • Q4 00:08 FG SF (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 15 – CHI 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (8:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to SF 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 46 for 19 yards (58-J.Anderson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (12:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to SF 17, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on SF-26-G.Mabin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at SF 17.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:12) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 29-T.Cohen for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (10:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SF 14, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-52-C.Jones.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to SF 46, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 48 for 2 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 38%

    (10:56) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CHI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at SF 16 for 67 yards (47-E.Lee). PENALTY on CHI-84-B.Braunecker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to SF 8, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.