Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 7

(6:12) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 29-T.Cohen for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.56 EP
74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model