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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 16

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model