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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model