Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 76

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(6:33) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to SF 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 81-T.Taylor to SF 46 for 19 yards (58-J.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model