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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model