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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Thursday 2017-11-30 · 20:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

WAS
53.1%
DAL
46.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.065 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
DAL 22
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

WAS

Terrell McClain DE Out Toe
Montae Nicholson S Out Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Out Hamstring
Chase Roullier C Out Hand
Zach Brown LB Questionable Shoulder
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Hand
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Core Muscle
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

DAL

Justin Durant LB Out Concussion
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Foot
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Groin
Zack Martin G Questionable Concussion
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Ryan Switzer WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 14
–
DAL 38

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:47 TD DAL (10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 82-J.Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 05:33 FG DAL (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 0 – DAL 10
  • Q2 04:06 TD DAL (4:06) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DAL 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 16
  • Q2 01:02 TD WAS (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-R.Grant for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – DAL 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-26-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. The touchdown catch by Bryant is his 72nd career TD reception, which is a new Cowboys team record, surpassing Bob Hayes. WAS 7 – DAL 23
  • Q4 11:35 TD WAS (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Doctson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 24
  • Q4 04:59 TD DAL (4:59) 46-A.Morris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – DAL 30
  • Q4 02:41 TD DAL (2:41) 45-R.Smith left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – DAL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 48%

    (10:18) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 16 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to DAL 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-33-C.Awuzie.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to WAS 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 4 yards (51-K.Wilber). FUMBLES (51-K.Wilber), RECOVERED by DAL-91-L.Ladouceur at WAS 43.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 51%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier. PENALTY on WAS-52-R.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at WAS 1.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:03) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DAL 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 41 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:06) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DAL 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 29%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Williams.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to DAL 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 31%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 14-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown (95-D.Irving) [96-M.Collins] at WAS 38. 30-A.Brown to WAS 22 for 16 yards (71-T.Williams). PENALTY on WAS-18-J.Doctson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 22. Pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage by Irving