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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 50

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model