Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 14 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 14-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown (95-D.Irving) [96-M.Collins] at WAS 38. 30-A.Brown to WAS 22 for 16 yards (71-T.Williams). PENALTY on WAS-18-J.Doctson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 22. Pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage by Irving

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.98 EP