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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to WAS 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 4 yards (51-K.Wilber). FUMBLES (51-K.Wilber), RECOVERED by DAL-91-L.Ladouceur at WAS 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP