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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier. PENALTY on WAS-52-R.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at WAS 1.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model