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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 88

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 40, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 40 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model