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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 20:30 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

BAL
36.6%
PIT
63.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.102 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.134 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Za'Darius Smith LB Doubtful Shoulder
Jermaine Eluemunor G Questionable Shoulder
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Back
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Neck

PIT

Joe Haden CB Out Fibula
Tyler Matakevich LB Out Shoulder
Ryan Shazier LB Out Back
Michael Mitchell S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 38
–
PIT 39

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD PIT (7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 26-L.Bell for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 13:16 TD PIT (13:16) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – PIT 13
  • Q2 09:14 TD BAL (9:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 10-C.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 14
  • Q2 04:18 FG PIT (4:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 7 – PIT 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – PIT 17
  • Q2 00:06 FG PIT (:06) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine Sr., Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 14 – PIT 20
  • Q3 10:10 FG BAL (10:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 17 – PIT 20
  • Q3 05:23 TD BAL (5:23) 37-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – PIT 20
  • Q3 02:48 TD BAL (2:48) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – PIT 20
  • Q4 12:17 FG PIT (12:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 31 – PIT 23
  • Q4 09:21 TD PIT (9:21) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 45-R.Nix for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Judon]. BAL-23-T.Jefferson was injured during the play. BAL 31 – PIT 29
  • Q4 06:52 TD BAL (6:52) 37-J.Allen right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 37 – PIT 29
  • Q4 03:36 TD PIT (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-L.Bell right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 38 – PIT 35
  • Q4 00:46 FG PIT (:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 38 – PIT 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 43%

    (4:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%

    (4:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 25, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (10:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 40, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 40 for no gain.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (12:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:36) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 17 for -2 yards (88-V.Mayle).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.