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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model