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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model