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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 38 – Pittsburgh Steelers 36

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 17 for -2 yards (88-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model