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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 34

Chicago Bears 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 87-A.Shaheen to CIN 18 for 16 yards (43-G.Iloka).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model