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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🥶 Cold Spread 6.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CHI
29.8%
CIN
70.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.006 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.164 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 17
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CHI

Adrian Amos S Doubtful Hamstring
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Hip
Pernell McPhee LB Doubtful Shoulder
DeAndre Houston-Carson S Questionable Ankle

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion
Adam Jones CB Out Groin
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Concussion
Joe Mixon RB Out Concussion
Nick Vigil LB Out Ankle
Shawn Williams S Out Hamstring
Geno Atkins DT Questionable Toe
Brandon Wilson S Questionable Ankle
Darqueze Dennard CB Questionable Knee
Vincent Rey LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 33
–
CIN 7

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:05 TD CHI (11:05) (Shotgun) 24-Jo.Howard left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 02:22 TD CIN (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-B.LaFell for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CIN 6
  • Q2 12:42 FG CHI (12:42) 1-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 9 – CIN 7
  • Q2 01:50 FG CHI (1:50) 1-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 12 – CIN 7
  • Q3 04:59 TD CHI (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 18 – CIN 7
  • Q4 14:57 TD CHI (14:57) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 87-A.Shaheen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 25 – CIN 7
  • Q4 09:25 TD CHI (9:25) (Shotgun) 24-Jo.Howard up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 32 – CIN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:20) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to CHI 34, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 34.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:55) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 28 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones; 84-B.Braunecker).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (12:42) 1-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:04) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-31-M.Cooper Sr., Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 9.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 63%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 87-A.Shaheen to CIN 18 for 16 yards (43-G.Iloka).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 96%

    (1:50) 1-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:44) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to CHI 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 48 for 6 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to CIN 15, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to CHI 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 24 for 1 yard (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 58%

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to CIN 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 5 yards (93-S.Acho; 27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 31%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete deep left to 87-C.Uzomah.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 29%

    (:27) 29-T.Cohen left end to 50 for -3 yards (99-A.Billings).