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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 9

Chicago Bears 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 1-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.95 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP