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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 3 at the 47
Chicago Bears 33 – Cincinnati Bengals 7
What Actually Happened
(:27) 29-T.Cohen left end to 50 for -3 yards (99-A.Billings).
The Three Options
GO
+0.07 EP
What Happened
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.95 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -0.73 EP
KICK
+0.27 EP
Model's Pick
- 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
- 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
