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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP