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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 71

Chicago Bears 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 28 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones; 84-B.Braunecker).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model