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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to CLE 19, Center-61-B.Goode. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 19 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model