Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- GB offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- Wind 24 mph
- QB edge to GB: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.258 vs Brett Hundley (GB) -0.221 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
GB
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:57 TD GB (8:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass deep right to 30-J.Williams for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CLE 0
- Q1 04:50 TD CLE (4:50) 7-D.Kizer pass deep right to 12-J.Gordon for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CLE 6
- Q2 05:16 TD CLE (5:16) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 29-D.Johnson Jr. for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Shovel Pass GB 7 – CLE 13
- Q3 02:59 TD CLE (2:59) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 19-C.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CLE 20
- Q4 12:54 TD GB (12:54) 30-J.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CLE 21
- Q4 00:17 TD GB (:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – CLE 21
- Q5 05:12 TD GB (5:12) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CLE 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(12:14) (Punt formation) 35-J.Whitehead left end pushed ob at CLE 47 for 7 yards (21-J.Taylor). Rush out of Punt Formation
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 43%
(10:15) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to CLE 30 for 8 yards (30-J.McCourty).
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Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:25) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 29-D.Johnson Jr..
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to GB 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-S.Coates.
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Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:23) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to CLE 25, Center-61-B.Goode. 29-D.Johnson Jr. MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 25, and recovers at CLE 25. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 30 for 5 yards (45-V.Biegel).
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Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:17) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to CLE 19, Center-61-B.Goode. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 19 for no gain (11-T.Davis).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(13:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to GB 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Davis to GB 19 for -2 yards (27-M.Dayes).
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Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%
(7:24) 7-B.Hundley up the middle to CLE 12 for -2 yards (99-C.Brantley; 52-J.Burgess Jr.).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EPp(convert) 67%
(9:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to GB 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.
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Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 58%
(5:28) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:57) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to GB 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Davis to CLE 25 for 65 yards (56-D.King; 87-S.DeValve).