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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to GB 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Davis to GB 19 for -2 yards (27-M.Dayes).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model