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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 7-B.Hundley up the middle to CLE 12 for -2 yards (99-C.Brantley; 52-J.Burgess Jr.).

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.36 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model