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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to CLE 30 for 8 yards (30-J.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model