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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to GB 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP