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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 14 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP