4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to GB 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Davis to CLE 25 for 65 yards (56-D.King; 87-S.DeValve).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model