Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

(2:25) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 29-D.Johnson Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model