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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 8 for no gain (19-R.Shepard). FUMBLES (19-R.Shepard), and recovers at MIN 8. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 10 for 2 yards (57-A.Gachkar).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.30 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP