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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

MIN
49.0%
CAR
51.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (MIN): +0.162 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

David Morgan TE Out Concussion
Mike Remmers T Out Back
Pat Elflein C Questionable Shoulder

CAR

Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot
Devin Funchess WR Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Foot
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Foot
Kaelin Clay WR Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 24
–
CAR 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD CAR (11:06) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart right guard for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 06:33 TD MIN (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep left to 82-K.Rudolph for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 14:22 TD CAR (14:22) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – CAR 13
  • Q2 05:08 FG MIN (5:08) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 10 – CAR 14
  • Q2 00:09 FG MIN (:09) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 13 – CAR 14
  • Q3 08:51 TD CAR (8:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 17-D.Funchess for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – CAR 20
  • Q3 06:57 FG CAR (6:57) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIN 13 – CAR 24
  • Q4 05:47 TD MIN (5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – CAR 24
  • Q4 03:11 FG MIN (3:11) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 24 – CAR 24
  • Q4 01:50 TD CAR (1:50) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:11) 4-R.Quigley punts 48 yards to CAR 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-K.Clay to CAR 28 for 7 yards (81-B.Bell).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 8 for no gain (19-R.Shepard). FUMBLES (19-R.Shepard), and recovers at MIN 8. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 10 for 2 yards (57-A.Gachkar).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:08) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 26 for 9 yards (44-J.Jansen).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (5:08) 2-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo; 27-K.Seymour).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 87%

    (6:57) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (2:10) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CAR 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to MIN 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at CAR 30 for 29 yards (34-C.Artis-Payne).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 62%

    (14:25) 2-K.Forbath 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (11:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to MIN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (7:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to MIN 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 27 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (3:11) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen (20-K.Coleman).