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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP