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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 26 for 9 yards (44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP