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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CAR 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model