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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 97

Carolina Panthers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to MIN 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at CAR 30 for 29 yards (34-C.Artis-Payne).

The Three Options

GO -3.76 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 97, worth -6.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model